Vox populi

You are probably wondering about my long silence since the last post on 11/7/24. I admit it has taken me a long time to gather my thoughts after the election. As is often said after an election - the people have spoken. In this case vox populi - the voice of the people - has been quite clear. Donald Trump won more popular votes than Kamala Harris, a feat few Republicans have been able to pull off. If my premise for this blog is correct, it means some middle-of-the-roaders voted for him - say it ain't so. Newspapers, blogs, radio and TV have been full of opinions and analyses of what it is "the people" said with their vote.

Before offering my take on the issue I would like to take a detour. My first post on 1/20/20 referred to the fact that Ronald Reagan had the solar panels Jimmy Carter installed on the White House roof removed and I made the point that after several decades there is little doubt about which of them was on the right side of history on that issue. As we mark the passing of President Carter, I don't think I can add anything meaningful to the accolades being heaped on him in the media. I want to point out, though, that in 1976, "the people" elected an unknown Southern governor, and a Democrat no less, to be President. Four years later, the same people voted for another relative unknown, Reagan, by a landslide. I think it is fair to say that a lot of people were left scratching their heads at what had happened, both then and now.

Obviously, "the people" can be inscrutable. The phenomenon known as "the wisdom of the crowd" comes to mind. It has an interesting origin. It is based on the observation made by a late 19th century British polymath, Francis Galton, that the crowd at a country fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged. I for one am not convinced that this can be used to infer that "the people" are right when it comes to voting outcomes. But it does raise the question of who "the people" are. In answer to that question, I would like to introduce the Report on Adult Literacy, Numeracy and Adaptive Problem Solving from the Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) based on a survey of 160,000 16–65-year-olds in 31 mostly western countries. The survey was conducted in 2013 and 2023. I would encourage you to look at this report for yourself at www.oecd.org. The most concerning finding is that proficiency in all three areas decreased in all but a small minority of participating countries over the 10 years and that 18% of those surveyed did not have the most basic skills corresponding to an elementary to middle school education level. What does that say about the wisdom of crowds? Maybe the crowds were smarter in 19th century England. Spoiler alert, adult literacy and numeracy levels in the US were in the bottom of the range in this report. It does give you a different perspective when you wonder why people would vote for a convicted felon over a former California Attorney-General, US senator and current vice-president; or why the price of groceries would carry more weight than US economic indicators outperforming all other countries, even as US consumer confidence and spending are at or near all-time highs.

Lastly, where does this leave middle-of-the-roaders? Alas, that, too, is hard to say. Does it mean that even though they are not on the extreme Right or the extreme Left, there is enough diversity of opinion in their ranks that they are not the deciding voting bloc that I had hoped. And how many of them are among the 18% of adults with lower levels of literacy and numeracy than elementary/middle schoolers? I guess we will know the answers to these questions in the fullness of time. Stay tuned.

Happy New Year.